Kutlay Ebiri, Economist
TO: Arlington County Board
FROM: Kutlay Ebiri
6/14/2022
MISSING MIDDLE HOUSING
I fully support the Missing Middle Housing (MMH) Phase 2 recommendations as the President of the Westwind Homeowners Association. The following explains my reasons.
Having studied the team’s work, I believe the MMH initiative is likely to help alleviate Arlington’s housing shortage, without endangering other ongoing efforts to solve stormwater run-off, improve tree canopy, walkable streets, and traffic congestion. It will also help diversify the areas that are currently out of reach for many income groups.
As far as I glean from their posts on social media sites like Nextdoor, many opponents of the MMH initiative have adopted a “wolf in a sheep’s clothing” strategy, attacking MMH from a so-called “progressive” angle: defending sustainability, tree canopy, stormwater issues. Even claiming that MMH will encourage “gentrification” and that is a ploy by profit hungry, “evil developers.” When confronted by the supporting statements of the Arlingtonian branches of Sierra Club, Habitat for Humanity, and NAACP, they now are claiming that these institutions do not represent Arlingtonians, that they do not know what they are talking about, or that they know better than them.
Many of them argue that MMH will cause the land values will drop (so the SFH owners "have to be compensated"), others say that MMH will cause land values to rise (so the real estate taxes will go up--which is a big lie by itself if you read the Virginia code 58.1.3321). To check other popular boxes, they will say higher density will cause major stormwater issues (conflating, of course, sewage with stormwater, while ignoring that MMH proposes to remain within the existing impervious footprint of the SFH). Same tactics regarding the issues related to "aging in place", "schools", "parking", "traffic", "tree canopy", etc. Then there are those who are opposed to anything and everything that does not fall into their so-called "private sector economy" (again, conveniently ignoring that the current zoning that only permits SFH to be built in certain areas was a "government decision"). They also have an evil strawman: developers. They accuse others (and, of course, CB members) of being in "the pocket of developers" who are pushing MMH on unsuspecting Arlingtonians. Except that MMH study expects these "evil developers" will need to be convinced to build these new forms of housing kicking and screaming.
Turning to the concerns about (1) "air quality, noise and stress" of the SFH population; (2) people who want to age in place; and (3) price increases of small lots. Let us begin with the fact that 25% of the population in Arlington occupy 75% of the county's land, thanks to zoning restrictions. The number of people who are expected to move into the multi-unit buildings is about 150-160 per year, as compared to the 60,000 current residents who live in SFH zones. They are not likely to affect the air quality, noise, or stress levels at any significant level. Second, the people with fixed income who want to age in place (like myself) need options such as one-level living or buildings with elevators. MMH increases the availability of such choices. Third, the buildings proposed by the MMH study have inherent economic disadvantages as stated by the study: "increased costs to build, increased complexity for ownership and sales, and lack of familiarity in the market." As a 77-year-old economist, I can tell you that the developers who want to maximize their profits are not highly likely to rush to bid up the land values (certainly not more than those who are eager to build SF monstrosities). And that is why the study projects only 20 multi-family units to be built per year.
I am, of course, concerned with the projected slow growth of MMH. The proposal of lifting archaic and discriminatory zoning restrictions is worth pursuing, regardless.
During today’s meeting of Arlington County Civic Federation, the majority passed a resolution, suggesting radical changes in GLUP, that if accepted, will kill the MMH initiative or any other attempt to solve the housing problem in Arlington, forever. I am aware of the County Board’s desire to build some consensus for the policies it proposes. However, in my view, the best way to build such consensus would be to actively show the inconsistencies, falsehoods, conjectures and the distortions of the facts promoted by the opponents of the MMH initiative.
Thank you for your attention.
Kutlay Ebiri
President
Westwind Homeowners Association